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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to JAX 2, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.94 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.48 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP