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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 29

New Orleans Saints 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -2.37 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.89 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -1.21 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model