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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 19

New England Patriots 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 26-S.Michel right end to NYG 19 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson; 55-D.Mayo). measurement

The Three Options

GO +3.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.09 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model