NYG @ NE — 4th & Data

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New England Patriots

6-0 HC Bill Belichick

Thursday 2019-10-10 · 20:20 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 16.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NYG

21.0%

79.0%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

NE defense: -0.277 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
Tom Brady (NE): +0.189 EPA/dropback in prior starts
NE offense: +0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
Daniel Jones (NYG): +0.003 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYG 16 9–23

–

NE 28 21–35

Projected margin: NE by 12 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

NYG

Evan Engram TE Out Knee

Wayne Gallman RB Out Concussion

Sterling Shepard WR Out Concussion

Saquon Barkley RB Out Ankle

Lorenzo Carter LB Questionable Neck

NE

Phillip Dorsett WR Out Hamstring

Rex Burkhead RB Questionable Foot

Shilique Calhoun LB Questionable Ankle

Patrick Chung S Questionable Heel

Nate Ebner S Questionable Groin

Julian Edelman WR Questionable Chest

Josh Gordon WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 14

–

NE 35

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 01:48 TD NE (1:48) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 38-B.Bolden, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, RECOVERED by NE-50-C.Winovich at NYG 6. 50-C.Winovich for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Blocked by credit to NE 38-Bolden. Bolden drives NYG 45-N.Stupar backwards to cause the blocked punt. NYG 0 – NE 6
Q2 07:17 TD NE (7:17) 38-B.Bolden left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – NE 13
Q2 06:15 TD NYG (6:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – NE 14
Q2 04:54 TD NYG (4:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 43 for -9 yards (59-L.Carter). FUMBLES (59-L.Carter) [59-L.Carter], RECOVERED by NYG-44-M.Golden at NE 42. 44-M.Golden for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-10-J.Gordon was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. NYG 13 – NE 14
Q2 00:38 TD NE (:38) 65-J.Eluemunor reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 14 – NE 20
Q4 08:43 TD NE (8:43) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 28-J.Hilliman to NYG 26 for -7 yards (58-J.Collins). FUMBLES (58-J.Collins), RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at NYG 22. 53-K.Van Noy ran ob at NYG 2 for 20 yards (8-D.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 28-J.Hilliman to NYG 26 for -7 yards (58-J.Collins). FUMBLES (58-J.Collins), touched at NYG 25, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at NYG 22. 53-K.Van Noy for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 14 – NE 27
Q4 03:53 TD NE (3:53) 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 3rd career 2 rushing TD game NYG 14 – NE 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 19

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 90%

(11:27) 26-S.Michel right end to NYG 19 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson; 55-D.Mayo). measurement
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 73

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP

p(convert) 69%

(9:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NE 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(8:01) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%

(5:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to NE 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(3:37) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(1:48) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 38-B.Bolden, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, RECOVERED by NE-50-C.Winovich at NYG 6. 50-C.Winovich for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Blocked by credit to NE 38-Bolden. Bolden drives NYG 45-N.Stupar backwards to cause the blocked punt.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 27%

(14:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to NE 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton. PENALTY on NYG, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 10.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(10:52) 7-J.Bailey punts 32 yards to NYG 25, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%

(2:52) 2-M.Nugent 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 19%

(:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to NE 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 20 for 10 yards (55-D.Mayo).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 32

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%

(9:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Edelman [47-A.Ogletree].
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP

p(convert) 58%

(7:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 30 yards to NE 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-48-J.Tauaefa.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 63 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(2:52) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Slayton (24-S.Gilmore).
See the full breakdown →

New York Giants