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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 22

New England Patriots 21 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 2-M.Nugent 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.14 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model