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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 52

New York Giants 14 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to NE 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 20 for 10 yards (55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model