Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 74

New England Patriots 0 – New York Giants 0

(8:01) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model