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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 45

New York Giants 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to NE 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.10 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model