4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 64

New England Patriots 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model