Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 81

New York Giants 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 38-B.Bolden, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, RECOVERED by NE-50-C.Winovich at NYG 6. 50-C.Winovich for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Blocked by credit to NE 38-Bolden. Bolden drives NYG 45-N.Stupar backwards to cause the blocked punt.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.41 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model