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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(9:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 17-A.Jeffery.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.83 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model