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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2019-10-13 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

PHI
44.6%
MIN
55.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): -0.034 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
MIN 25
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

PHI

Corey Clement RB Out Shoulder
Ronald Darby CB Out Hamstring
DeSean Jackson WR Out Abdomen
Timmy Jernigan DT Out Foot
Avonte Maddox CB Out Concussion
Darren Sproles RB Out Quadricep

MIN

Ben Gedeon LB Out Concussion
Josh Kline G Out Foot
Kentrell Brothers LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 20
–
MIN 38

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:48 TD MIN (7:48) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 01:57 FG MIN (1:57) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. PHI 0 – MIN 10
  • Q2 12:15 FG PHI (12:15) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 3 – MIN 10
  • Q2 11:47 TD MIN (11:47) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – MIN 16
  • Q2 09:39 TD MIN (9:39) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – MIN 23
  • Q2 07:09 TD PHI (7:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 26-M.Sanders for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – MIN 24
  • Q3 12:18 TD PHI (12:18) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – MIN 24
  • Q3 06:23 FG PHI (6:23) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 20 – MIN 24
  • Q3 01:22 TD MIN (1:22) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – MIN 30
  • Q4 08:21 TD MIN (8:21) 33-D.Cook left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – MIN 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (5:40) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to MIN 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 44 for 6 yards (45-R.Lovato).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (1:57) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 69%

    (12:15) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 35%

    (9:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 17-A.Jeffery.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:41) 2-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to PHI 9, Center-58-A.Cutting. 35-B.Scott pushed ob at PHI 22 for 13 yards (83-T.Conklin).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:57) 1-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to MIN 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%

    (:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 97-E.Griffen (41-A.Harris) at MIN 15. 97-E.Griffen to MIN 32 for 17 yards (98-H.Ridgeway; 73-I.Seumalo).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 90%

    (6:23) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 18 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to MIN 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:46) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz to 50 for 17 yards (26-T.Waynes).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 42%

    (5:52) 2-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to PHI 8, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%

    (3:20) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 11-L.Treadwell ran ob at PHI 11 for 15 yards [54-K.Grugier-Hill].