Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

(1:57) 1-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to MIN 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.44 EP
67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model