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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 97-E.Griffen (41-A.Harris) at MIN 15. 97-E.Griffen to MIN 32 for 17 yards (98-H.Ridgeway; 73-I.Seumalo).

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.67 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP