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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Minnesota Vikings 31

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to MIN 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.29 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model