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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 38 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 2-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to PHI 8, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.88 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model