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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 26

Minnesota Vikings 38 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 11-L.Treadwell ran ob at PHI 11 for 15 yards [54-K.Grugier-Hill].

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.41 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -1.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EP