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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to MIN 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 44 for 6 yards (45-R.Lovato).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.24 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP