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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 20

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.92 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 20, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model