Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SEA offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- CLE offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.227 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SEA on 4 more days rest than CLE
- Wind 20 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
SEA
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:05 TD CLE (13:05) 24-N.Chubb left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – CLE 6
- Q1 08:58 TD SEA (8:58) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – CLE 7
- Q1 04:49 TD CLE (4:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – CLE 13
- Q2 15:00 TD CLE (15:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – CLE 20
- Q2 10:49 FG SEA (10:49) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 9 – CLE 20
- Q2 07:28 FG SEA (7:28) 5-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 12 – CLE 20
- Q2 00:27 TD SEA (:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 18-J.Brown for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-J.Schobert]. SEA 18 – CLE 20
- Q3 06:07 TD SEA (6:07) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 18-J.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 24 – CLE 20
- Q4 09:06 TD CLE (9:06) 24-N.Chubb left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 25 – CLE 26
- Q4 03:33 TD SEA (3:33) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 31 – CLE 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 47%
(6:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry to SEA 11 for 27 yards (33-T.Thompson).
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 39Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 44%
(1:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 31 yards to CLE 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%
(10:49) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(10:13) 7-J.Gillan punt is BLOCKED by 83-D.Moore, Center-47-C.Hughlett, RECOVERED by SEA-17-M.Turner at CLE 20.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%
(7:28) 5-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 54%
(5:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 18 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to CLE 35, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-J.Landry to CLE 40 for 5 yards (44-N.Bellore).
-
Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:49) 7-J.Gillan punts 61 yards to SEA 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-12-K.Hodge.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 84%
(14:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 25-D.Hilliard to SEA 20 for 3 yards (50-K.Wright). Official Measurement on Play
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%
(10:43) 24-N.Chubb right guard to SEA 2 for -1 yards (97-P.Ford; 99-Q.Jefferson).
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 11 at the 99Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(9:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 23 yards to SEA 24, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.