4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 2

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 5-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 2, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP