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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 83

Seattle Seahawks 18 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to CLE 35, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-J.Landry to CLE 40 for 5 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 41, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model