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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 7 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(6:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry to SEA 11 for 27 yards (33-T.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.06 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.57 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model