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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to SF 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.99 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model