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San Francisco 49ers

5-0 HC Kyle Shanahan
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

3-3 HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2019-10-13 · 16:05 ET Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

SF
51.6%
LA
48.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SF defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.198 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LA on 4 more days rest than SF
  • LA offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SF 24 17–31
–
LA 23 16–30
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

SF

Kyle Juszczyk RB Out Knee
Mike McGlinchey T Out Knee
Joe Staley T Out Fibula
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Foot
George Kittle TE Questionable Groin

LA

Clay Matthews LB Out Jaw
Aqib Talib CB Out Ribs
Todd Gurley RB Doubtful Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 20
–
LA 7

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:25 TD LA (9:25) 17-R.Woods left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 03:44 TD SF (3:44) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 6 – LA 7
  • Q3 12:58 TD SF (12:58) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 13 – LA 7
  • Q3 05:02 FG SF (5:02) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 17 – LA 7
  • Q4 12:08 FG SF (12:08) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 20 – LA 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 14 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:02) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to LA 36, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Natson to SF 37 for 27 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). San Francisco challenged the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to LA 36, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Natson ran ob at LA 44 for 8 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 20 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 29%

    (8:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to SF 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:47) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to SF 46, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (3:20) 34-M.Brown up the middle to SF 1 for no gain (93-D.Jones, 91-A.Armstead).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 53%

    (:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo right tackle to LA 37 for 4 yards (51-T.Reeder).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (5:02) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 17 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:53) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to SF 33, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 42 for 9 yards (33-N.Scott).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (12:08) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:26) 27-D.Henderson up the middle to LA 44 for no gain (20-J.Ward, 54-F.Warner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 81%

    (7:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 18-C.Kupp (20-J.Ward).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:58) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to LA 32, Center-89-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 16 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:33) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 34 yards to LA 30, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by SF-53-M.Nzeocha.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 81-G.Everett.

    See the full breakdown →