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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 90

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to SF 46, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert.

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.87 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 90, worth -5.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model