Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 92

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(3:53) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to SF 33, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 42 for 9 yards (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +2.13 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model