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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.83 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 15, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP