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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 56

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 27-D.Henderson up the middle to LA 44 for no gain (20-J.Ward, 54-F.Warner).

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.74 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model