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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 18-C.Kupp (20-J.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.29 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model