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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to SEA 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 30 for 6 yards (36-C.Clark). PENALTY on BAL-36-C.Clark, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at SEA 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.04 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 70, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model