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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2019-10-20 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

BAL
39.8%
SEA
60.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.214 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

BAL

Jimmy Smith CB Doubtful Knee
Anthony Averett CB Questionable Ankle
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Ankle
Maurice Canady CB Questionable Thigh
Patrick Onwuasor LB Questionable Ankle
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Knee

SEA

Will Dissly TE Out Achilles
Delano Hill S Doubtful Elbow
Duane Brown T Questionable Biceps
Bradley McDougald S Questionable Back
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Ankle
D.J. Fluker G Questionable Hamstring
Quinton Jefferson DT Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 30
–
SEA 16

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:22 FG BAL (10:22) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – SEA 0
  • Q2 14:52 TD SEA (14:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-P.McPhee]. Penalty on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, declined. BAL 3 – SEA 6
  • Q2 11:10 FG BAL (11:10) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – SEA 7
  • Q2 07:39 FG SEA (7:39) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. BAL 6 – SEA 10
  • Q2 05:12 TD BAL (5:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 18-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 33. 24-M.Peters for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 12 – SEA 10
  • Q2 00:06 FG SEA (:06) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. BAL 13 – SEA 13
  • Q3 01:24 TD BAL (1:24) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – SEA 13
  • Q4 03:50 FG BAL (3:50) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 23 – SEA 13
  • Q4 03:47 TD BAL (3:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-DK.Metcalf to SEA 26 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, touched at SEA 26, RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at SEA 18. 44-M.Humphrey for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BAL 29 – SEA 13
  • Q4 01:53 FG SEA (1:53) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. BAL 30 – SEA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (10:22) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to BAL 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 27-C.Jones to BAL 28 for 2 yards (57-C.Barton).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:54) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 17 for 6 yards (54-T.Bowser).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (11:10) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (7:39) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:42) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to SEA 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 30 for 6 yards (36-C.Clark). PENALTY on BAL-36-C.Clark, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at SEA 30.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to BAL 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 27-C.Jones to BAL 13 for 6 yards (23-N.Thorpe).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (11:35) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 64%

    (6:51) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (1:24) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (3:50) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (1:53) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.