Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(13:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to BAL 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 27-C.Jones to BAL 13 for 6 yards (23-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.98 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model