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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 78

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.73 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 78, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 35, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP