4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 35

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.91 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP