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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Baltimore Ravens 30

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.05 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model