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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 25-M.Mack left end to IND 45 for no gain (55-B.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.84 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model