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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2019-10-20 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

HOU
47.0%
IND
53.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: +0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • IND on 7 more days rest than HOU
  • QB edge to HOU: Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.001 vs Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.132 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

HOU 24
–
IND 25
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

HOU

Tytus Howard T Out Knee
Greg Mancz C Out Concussion
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Hip
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Hamstring
Bradley Roby CB Questionable Hamstring

IND

Parris Campbell WR Out Abdomen
Tyquan Lewis DT Out Ankle
Kenny Moore CB Out Knee
Malik Hooker S Doubtful Knee
Pierre Desir CB Questionable Hamstring
Justin Houston DE Questionable Calf
Quenton Nelson G Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 23
–
IND 30

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:08 TD IND (5:08) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – IND 6
  • Q2 09:05 FG HOU (9:05) 7-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 3 – IND 7
  • Q2 06:30 FG HOU (6:30) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 6 – IND 7
  • Q2 01:52 TD IND (1:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 13-T.Hilton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – IND 13
  • Q2 00:27 FG HOU (:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 9 – IND 14
  • Q3 10:34 TD IND (10:34) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-E.Ebron. Indianapolis challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 56-Q.Nelson reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-E.Ebron for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – IND 20
  • Q3 08:48 TD HOU (8:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-K.Coutee left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 15 – IND 21
  • Q3 01:22 TD IND (1:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 14-Z.Pascal for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – IND 27
  • Q4 06:43 TD HOU (6:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 22 – IND 28
  • Q4 02:44 SAF IND (2:44) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger up the middle ran ob in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (14-Z.Pascal). HOU 23 – IND 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:11) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 51 yards to IND 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-44-C.Gillaspia.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%

    (1:57) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:10) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 25-M.Mack left end to IND 45 for no gain (55-B.McKinney).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (6:30) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (14:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-K.Stills to HOU 39 for 4 yards (34-R.Ya-Sin). HOU-63-R.Johnson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 26%

    (13:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins (96-D.Autry) [96-D.Autry]. IND 96 hit QB's biceps as he was throwing

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 38%

    (12:17) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:52) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-D.Carter to HOU 21 for 3 yards (26-C.Geathers).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 14 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

    (4:19) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to HOU 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-26-C.Geathers.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 95 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:44) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger up the middle ran ob in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (14-Z.Pascal).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:49) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.