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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 57

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 51 yards to IND 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-44-C.Gillaspia.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.48 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model