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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 65

Houston Texans 16 – Indianapolis Colts 28

What Actually Happened

(14:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-K.Stills to HOU 39 for 4 yards (34-R.Ya-Sin). HOU-63-R.Johnson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.82 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model