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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 52

Houston Texans 16 – Indianapolis Colts 28

What Actually Happened

(13:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins (96-D.Autry) [96-D.Autry]. IND 96 hit QB's biceps as he was throwing

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.68 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 52, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model