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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 28 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.24 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model