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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 28 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(8:52) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-D.Carter to HOU 21 for 3 yards (26-C.Geathers).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.00 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model