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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 28 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(4:19) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to HOU 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-26-C.Geathers.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model