Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 79

Indianapolis Colts 30 – Houston Texans 23

(1:49) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.39 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model