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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 28 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model