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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2019-10-20 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

JAX
41.1%
CIN
58.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.024 vs Gardner Minshew (JAX) -0.008 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
CIN 23
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

JAX

Marqise Lee WR Out Ankle
Geoff Swaim TE Out Concussion
Dede Westbrook WR Questionable Shoulder

CIN

Cordy Glenn T Out Not Injury Related
A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
William Jackson CB Out Shoulder
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Out Knee
Carl Lawson DE Out Hamstring
John Miller G Out Groin
Andre Smith T Out Ankle
Carlos Dunlap DE Doubtful Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 27
–
CIN 17

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 06:34 FG JAX (6:34) 4-J.Lambo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – CIN 0
  • Q2 01:27 TD CIN (1:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – CIN 6
  • Q2 00:07 FG JAX (:07) 4-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – CIN 7
  • Q3 06:56 FG JAX (6:56) 4-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 9 – CIN 7
  • Q3 00:36 FG CIN (:36) 4-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. JAX 9 – CIN 10
  • Q4 12:45 TD JAX (12:45) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short right to 84-K.Cole for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 15 – CIN 10
  • Q4 04:25 TD JAX (4:25) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 25-G.Bernard INTERCEPTED by 91-Y.Ngakoue [90-T.Bryan] at CIN 23. 91-Y.Ngakoue for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 23 – CIN 10
  • Q4 02:00 FG JAX (2:00) 4-J.Lambo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 27 – CIN 10
  • Q4 00:27 TD CIN (:27) 14-A.Dalton right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 27 – CIN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (10:42) 27-L.Fournette right guard to CIN 1 for no gain (52-P.Brown; 59-N.Vigil).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (8:52) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 41 for 3 yards (82-C.Carter). PENALTY on JAX-23-R.Armstead, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at JAX 38.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 53%

    (5:54) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to JAX 3, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-17-S.Morgan.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 12 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:37) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to JAX 43, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 17 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 31%

    (2:09) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 56%

    (13:35) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 28 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:04) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 43 for 15 yards (57-G.Pratt; 82-C.Carter). PENALTY on JAX-55-L.McCray, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 43.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (6:34) 4-J.Lambo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 31%

    (5:09) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 24%

    (2:20) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (:07) 4-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 35%

    (11:26) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to CIN 46 for 2 yards (36-S.Williams).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (6:56) 4-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 38%

    (3:45) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 92%

    (:36) 4-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:18) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 4-J.Lambo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.