Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 86

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 43 for 15 yards (57-G.Pratt; 82-C.Carter). PENALTY on JAX-55-L.McCray, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.19 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 86, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model