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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 3

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 4-J.Lambo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP