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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(5:09) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.09 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP